I think he's going to be great for the first two years. People will have trouble figuring him out early on, and he'll have a couple of stellar seasons and a ROTY/Cy Young candidate.
Then when people begin to figure him out, he'll probably have to adjust his delivery and will end up just being a solid mid-rotation starter. The first couple of years, he'll be worth his contract, but after that he'll become Randy "Woof" Wolf with too long of a contract.
Not that I don't like Randy Wolf... he's certainly been a better investment than Barry Zito. But if I were running a team, I wouldn't have placed that much money, or that many years, on someone who has never pitched in the MLB.
I mean, it's hard enough to calculate "MLE" but with entirely different leagues and a much smaller sample size of players (Japanese pitchers in MLB) you really can't decide that there is a set trend for them to follow.
Of course, this isn't just about giving an unknown commodity a 6-year contract. Pitchers in general shouldn't be getting really long contracts because of the risks of injury and BABIP fluke seasons that can fool those who aren't careful.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
A Dated Blog Name
I started this blog about 5 years ago, "Waiting for Rings" referring to me waiting for the Giants to win a World Series. I declared at some point that they'd win one by 2015. I thought it'd be more likely to be 2015 than 2010, but fortunately, I was wrong.
I still want to update about the Giants, but this blog name stands out as an anachronism in this new time for Giants fans.
I'm known (not very well) as Conor Gillaspie's biggest fan-boy. I started his Facebook fan page and put a bit of money to advertise it to targeted groups, even. That being said, it's hard for me to separate my desire for Conor to succeed with the facts, so I am probably not the best person when it comes to analysis of his value in the major leagues.
I am sure that he'd out-hit Aubrey Huff. His MLE (Major League Equivalency) has improved each year in the minors. It went from .213/.268/.278 in 2009 (San Jose) to .234/.273/.332 in 2010 (Richmond) to .252/.328/.372 in 2011 (Fresno.)
The one concern that stands out to me for Gillaspie is how much he got caught stealing. He does seem to be a smart baserunner, with 8 triples in 2010 and 6 in 2011, but a 50% CS rate is far too high. He needs to either not attempt to steal as often or try to learn to read pitchers better.
I think Gillaspie is ready to be a positive contributor to the 2011 Giants. In a full season of starting, I'd see him with about 2.0 WAR (mostly offense and a token 0.1+ WAR for average defense) and a dark horse ROTY candidate. However, the Giants will probably use him as a backup for Sandoval and perhaps Huff/Belt/Melky, and he won't get more than 150 at-bats barring a serious injury.
Part of me wants him to spend 2012 in the minors for a better shot at getting ROTY consideration in a full-time role for 2013, but I think both Gillaspie and the Giants would benefit more from having him on the roster this season.
I still want to update about the Giants, but this blog name stands out as an anachronism in this new time for Giants fans.
I'm known (not very well) as Conor Gillaspie's biggest fan-boy. I started his Facebook fan page and put a bit of money to advertise it to targeted groups, even. That being said, it's hard for me to separate my desire for Conor to succeed with the facts, so I am probably not the best person when it comes to analysis of his value in the major leagues.
I am sure that he'd out-hit Aubrey Huff. His MLE (Major League Equivalency) has improved each year in the minors. It went from .213/.268/.278 in 2009 (San Jose) to .234/.273/.332 in 2010 (Richmond) to .252/.328/.372 in 2011 (Fresno.)
The one concern that stands out to me for Gillaspie is how much he got caught stealing. He does seem to be a smart baserunner, with 8 triples in 2010 and 6 in 2011, but a 50% CS rate is far too high. He needs to either not attempt to steal as often or try to learn to read pitchers better.
I think Gillaspie is ready to be a positive contributor to the 2011 Giants. In a full season of starting, I'd see him with about 2.0 WAR (mostly offense and a token 0.1+ WAR for average defense) and a dark horse ROTY candidate. However, the Giants will probably use him as a backup for Sandoval and perhaps Huff/Belt/Melky, and he won't get more than 150 at-bats barring a serious injury.
Part of me wants him to spend 2012 in the minors for a better shot at getting ROTY consideration in a full-time role for 2013, but I think both Gillaspie and the Giants would benefit more from having him on the roster this season.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Conor Gillaspie: The next Jeff Cirilo?
Before I do any deeper analysis, my prediction is that Conor Gillapise will have stats similar to Jeff Cirilo’s, but with a higher OPS+ because Cirilo’s stats were “Coors”flated. For example, Bill Mueller’s career OPS is .797, and his career OPS+ is 109, meaning he is 9% better in terms of OPS than the average player. In terms of run production, Mueller was more than 9% better than the average player, because while his slugging of .425 was well within the margin of error of the slugging of an average player (.429.) his OBP of .373 is significantly superior to the average player.
Chart:
Mueller:
| OBP+ | OPS+ | SLG+ |
| 110 | 109 | 99 |
Since OBP is more valuable for a team than SLG in general, I believe that the OPS+ should be weighting at the level that each stat, OBP and SLG, effects the game. Otherwise, OPS+ becomes misleading, as you could have a .300 OBP, .500 SLG guy and a .400/.400 guy both with an OPS+ of 110. Now, on to Jeff Cirlio. Cirilo is regarded as better player than Mueller and I believe this is only for one reason; he stayed healthy. Had Mueller stayed healthy after 2005, I imagine his numbers would practically mirror Cirillo’s, and right now he’d be a 39 year old pinch hitter and spot starter hitting .280 with no power. But sadly, even though he wants to play, there’s no magic operation to put cartilage in his knee. That is why I have chosen to live vicariously through Conor Gillaspie, or what I want him to be, at least.
On the surface, Cirilo and Mueller have nearly identical numbers. Cirilo’s batting average and slugging percentage his 5 points higher, and Mueller has six more points of OBP, giving him a one point advantage in OPS. Essentially, based just on those stats, these two players are the same. However, it is not quite that simple. Cirilo spent two years with the Rockies, putting up numbers better than most of his numbers in Milwaukee, but with a lower OPS+. Thus, the two years of Coorsflation make Cirilo and Mueller appear equal, when Mueller had the slightly better career of the two offensively. Defensively, Cirilo is better however, as overall in his career he gives teams 9.7 runs a year (projected for partial seasons) on defense. Mueller is average defensively, but this total is not quite accurate. He makes teams lose -0.1 runs on average per year, but if you count only from 1996-2000, before his first knee injury, teams averaged a gain of 2.24 runs a year. Thus, Mueller went from a slightly above average to slightly below average fielder in his career.
Now the question: Is Conor Gillaspie like these two players? Or is the next Wade Boggs? Or to be slightly pessimistic, is he Todd Walker? Or to be a typical Giants fan doomsayer, is he our Sean Burroguhs, a third baseman with absolutely no power? To start, we will take the age 21 season of each of these players and compare them We will also compare each of their stops (up to A+) so far, taking account for the ages of each player. I still suspect Cirilo or Mueller will be the best match, but I am open to any of the options. I will also compare college stats of all the players who went to college.
So far from my analysis, I observe that Jeff Cirilo played at class A at age 22 and hit .304 with 9 home runs. Conor Gillaspie, at age 21, hit .286 with 4 home runs. Cirilo walked more and showed a little more power, but Gillaspie is a year younger in a higher league. So far, it looks like the two players could be considered similar. Bill Mueller comparisons are yet to be made because Mueller did not play in the minors until age 22.
Overall, I believe my Gillaspie/Cirlio comparisons should be somewhat accurate.
Next week, I will have a more in-depth article.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Get ready for 2009!
I'm ready!
*anvil falls on my head*
Oh wait, this is not a comic or comedy.
My life is, but more on that later.
The Renteria signing smells bad. I call .260, 10 HR. I don't expect anything like .300. He'll hit like mediocrity. Short blog, but expect mediocrity and get excited if he hits .300.
*anvil falls on my head*
Oh wait, this is not a comic or comedy.
My life is, but more on that later.
The Renteria signing smells bad. I call .260, 10 HR. I don't expect anything like .300. He'll hit like mediocrity. Short blog, but expect mediocrity and get excited if he hits .300.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
I aimed far too high.
When the season started, I thought I was being realistic by giving the Giants a .500 record. I thought the acquisition of Ryan Klesko would be a significant improvement over the Niekro/Sweeney fiasco of the last two years. I was wrong. More about the record than about Klesko, who has done decently for a first baseman, though his hitting is sub par for the position.
The Giants have gone from a consistent winner to a train wreck, and our moves this past offseason did nothing to help us. The Giants of 2005 and 2006 struggled due more to poor hitting than poor pitching. The 2005 Giants were a punchless lineup that had Pedro Feliz lead the team with 20 home runs. The 2006 Giants had Barry Bonds, but not quite the same Barry we remembered.
The 2007 Giants added Barry Zito. An above-average pitcher being paid an ace's wage. And we didn't even need him. Without Zito, we'd still have a solid pitching staff. At the start of the season we would have had Cain, Morris, Lowry, Lincecum, Ortiz/Sanchez/Corriea. Not bad at all. If we had spent Zito's salary on a hitter, we'd probably have hit... that magic .500 number.
This is what the Giants need to do to get back on track for the upcoming years.
Keep our pitching staff pretty much in-tact. Cain and Lincecum are the start of something scary, something 1997 Braves scary. Those two, plus some other decent arms will be enough for our pitching. Our pitching is pretty much good enough for the next few years.
Replace Klesko, Feliz, Aurillia, and yes, even Vizquel. And of course, replace Bonds. Barry won't be playing by the time the Giants are competitive again. Durham might not either.
The following positions need to be fixed immeidately:
First Base
Third Base
The following positions are a couple years away from needing a quick replacement:
Second Base
Shortstop
Left Field
Center Field
The following positions do not suck that much:
Right Field
Catcher
We need to rebuild completely for our 2015 world series run. 2015. Yep.
The Giants have gone from a consistent winner to a train wreck, and our moves this past offseason did nothing to help us. The Giants of 2005 and 2006 struggled due more to poor hitting than poor pitching. The 2005 Giants were a punchless lineup that had Pedro Feliz lead the team with 20 home runs. The 2006 Giants had Barry Bonds, but not quite the same Barry we remembered.
The 2007 Giants added Barry Zito. An above-average pitcher being paid an ace's wage. And we didn't even need him. Without Zito, we'd still have a solid pitching staff. At the start of the season we would have had Cain, Morris, Lowry, Lincecum, Ortiz/Sanchez/Corriea. Not bad at all. If we had spent Zito's salary on a hitter, we'd probably have hit... that magic .500 number.
This is what the Giants need to do to get back on track for the upcoming years.
Keep our pitching staff pretty much in-tact. Cain and Lincecum are the start of something scary, something 1997 Braves scary. Those two, plus some other decent arms will be enough for our pitching. Our pitching is pretty much good enough for the next few years.
Replace Klesko, Feliz, Aurillia, and yes, even Vizquel. And of course, replace Bonds. Barry won't be playing by the time the Giants are competitive again. Durham might not either.
The following positions need to be fixed immeidately:
First Base
Third Base
The following positions are a couple years away from needing a quick replacement:
Second Base
Shortstop
Left Field
Center Field
The following positions do not suck that much:
Right Field
Catcher
We need to rebuild completely for our 2015 world series run. 2015. Yep.
Friday, April 6, 2007
Thoughts on the first series.
Well, the Giants have now played, and lost, their first series in the 2007 season. A weak offense and poor relief pitching led to said result. The Giants as a team are batting .224 with just one home run, that being off the bat of Barry Bonds. Hopefully this doesn't speak volumes about our entire season, but it's not a good sign.
Perhaps the Giants biggest weakness is something that's cursed them for more than a decade. That is, their inability to draft position players that make it as major league regulars. Their last batter they drafted that made a noticeable impact in the major leagues is Bill Mueller, their 15th round pick in the 1993 draft.
The Giants have not made wise picks since then. Some say that it's because the Giants concentrated more on pitchers in the draft during the Sabean era, but while that is part of it, that hasn't always been the case every year.
Let's look at some of the position players the Giants have drafted between 1994-2006 in the first round:
Dante Powell (1994- 1st round, 22nd pick)
Jacob Cruz (1994 - 1st round, 32nd pick)
Dan McKinley (1997 - 1st round, 49th pick)
Tony Torcato (1998 -1st round - 19th pick)
Arturo McDowell (1998 - 1st round - 29th pick)
Todd Linden (2001 - 1st round, 41st pick)
Emmaunel Burris (2006 - 1st round, 33rd pick)
With the exception of Burris, all of these guys are old enough that they could have established themselves as major league regulars. Powell, Cruz, and Torcato were all given a variety of sniffs at the majors but never stuck, McKinley and McDowell never made it, and the jury is still out on Linden, who finally had a decent showing at the major league level last season.
There's also Lance Niekro, drafted in the second round in 2001, thus not making the "first rounder" list. He's had some major league experience, but with the exception of 2005 has shown no promise.
This really holds the Giants back, more than using pitchers like Vinnie Chulk and Jack Taschner.
The Giants, due to their inability (or refusal?) to draft a solid hitter, are forced to pay all their starters big money, while other teams have a couple guys making the major league minimum or just a bit above and providing their team with good service.
When the Giants are paying $5,100,000 for Pedro Feliz to do his awful job at third, they are taking money away that could be spent elsewhere did they have a rookie making the minimum. The Padres are using the inexperienced Kevin Kouzmanoff whom they acquired from the Indians. He's their starting third baseman, and making the minimum. And by the end of the season, it won't be Feliz with the better numbers.
The Giants really need to start rebuilding and stop thinking in the present, because the time really isn't now. We're an old team that has some hope for the future. We have the makings of a great pitching staff for years to come with Zito, Cain, Lowry, and Lincenum. Our offense, however, is in dire need of repair. We need to draft young hitters, since our pitching is not as much of a concern currently. We need young hitters that will craft a new Giants legacy for this century, and on our current team, I can't name anyone that can be that star.
Sure, some of our players could stick around for the new team. Linden, hopefully. Frandsen. Alfonzo, maybe, if he develops patience and keeps up his power numbers from 2006 over a full season would make a good starting catcher.
Getting past Barry is our first priority, and it will be a difficult journey. Since 1993, the Giants have relied on Bonds to provide them with the offense they need to win games. That's not to say the Giants were always awful without him. In 1993, the Giants were an amazing team that fell just short of the playoffs, and not having Barry Bonds would not have made them the 2005 San Francisco Giants.
Another example is 1999. The Giants were a solid team with strong hitters. We had both Jeff Kent and Ellis Burks, and Marvin Benard managed to hit 16 home runs with the alleged aid of steroids. Bonds was out for half the season, and the Giants still were above .500 without him. That goes to show that the Giants have not always been centered 100% around Barry. It's only been after we lost Kent that we've been unable to protect him. We have to remember that we are more than Barry Bonds.
And yes, I know it would be great if he got his World Series Ring. So tell you what, if we have a shot 2 years down the line, we should keep Barry as a pinch-hitter/backup, and let him get his ring. Just give him a very small salary as well, and that will be fine.
Anyway, that is all for today. Tonight... we'll win 16-2. I wish.
Perhaps the Giants biggest weakness is something that's cursed them for more than a decade. That is, their inability to draft position players that make it as major league regulars. Their last batter they drafted that made a noticeable impact in the major leagues is Bill Mueller, their 15th round pick in the 1993 draft.
The Giants have not made wise picks since then. Some say that it's because the Giants concentrated more on pitchers in the draft during the Sabean era, but while that is part of it, that hasn't always been the case every year.
Let's look at some of the position players the Giants have drafted between 1994-2006 in the first round:
Dante Powell (1994- 1st round, 22nd pick)
Jacob Cruz (1994 - 1st round, 32nd pick)
Dan McKinley (1997 - 1st round, 49th pick)
Tony Torcato (1998 -1st round - 19th pick)
Arturo McDowell (1998 - 1st round - 29th pick)
Todd Linden (2001 - 1st round, 41st pick)
Emmaunel Burris (2006 - 1st round, 33rd pick)
With the exception of Burris, all of these guys are old enough that they could have established themselves as major league regulars. Powell, Cruz, and Torcato were all given a variety of sniffs at the majors but never stuck, McKinley and McDowell never made it, and the jury is still out on Linden, who finally had a decent showing at the major league level last season.
There's also Lance Niekro, drafted in the second round in 2001, thus not making the "first rounder" list. He's had some major league experience, but with the exception of 2005 has shown no promise.
This really holds the Giants back, more than using pitchers like Vinnie Chulk and Jack Taschner.
The Giants, due to their inability (or refusal?) to draft a solid hitter, are forced to pay all their starters big money, while other teams have a couple guys making the major league minimum or just a bit above and providing their team with good service.
When the Giants are paying $5,100,000 for Pedro Feliz to do his awful job at third, they are taking money away that could be spent elsewhere did they have a rookie making the minimum. The Padres are using the inexperienced Kevin Kouzmanoff whom they acquired from the Indians. He's their starting third baseman, and making the minimum. And by the end of the season, it won't be Feliz with the better numbers.
The Giants really need to start rebuilding and stop thinking in the present, because the time really isn't now. We're an old team that has some hope for the future. We have the makings of a great pitching staff for years to come with Zito, Cain, Lowry, and Lincenum. Our offense, however, is in dire need of repair. We need to draft young hitters, since our pitching is not as much of a concern currently. We need young hitters that will craft a new Giants legacy for this century, and on our current team, I can't name anyone that can be that star.
Sure, some of our players could stick around for the new team. Linden, hopefully. Frandsen. Alfonzo, maybe, if he develops patience and keeps up his power numbers from 2006 over a full season would make a good starting catcher.
Getting past Barry is our first priority, and it will be a difficult journey. Since 1993, the Giants have relied on Bonds to provide them with the offense they need to win games. That's not to say the Giants were always awful without him. In 1993, the Giants were an amazing team that fell just short of the playoffs, and not having Barry Bonds would not have made them the 2005 San Francisco Giants.
Another example is 1999. The Giants were a solid team with strong hitters. We had both Jeff Kent and Ellis Burks, and Marvin Benard managed to hit 16 home runs with the alleged aid of steroids. Bonds was out for half the season, and the Giants still were above .500 without him. That goes to show that the Giants have not always been centered 100% around Barry. It's only been after we lost Kent that we've been unable to protect him. We have to remember that we are more than Barry Bonds.
And yes, I know it would be great if he got his World Series Ring. So tell you what, if we have a shot 2 years down the line, we should keep Barry as a pinch-hitter/backup, and let him get his ring. Just give him a very small salary as well, and that will be fine.
Anyway, that is all for today. Tonight... we'll win 16-2. I wish.
Thursday, March 1, 2007
It's Spring Training Time
I know that the NBA and NHL are still running, but I'm a hardcore baseball fan above anything else. Sure, I hope the Warriors and Sharks do well, but I'm already excited about the Giants spring training.
I'm going to make a prediction for this year. 81-81, third place in the West. We'll swing back and forth, have first place for a few days in late August, but fall down to .500 by the end of the season.
Of course, I hope and hope and hope we win the World Series, but I don't think it's our time. I will change my mind if we go 6-0 in April to start off the 2007 season.
Goodnight.
I'm going to make a prediction for this year. 81-81, third place in the West. We'll swing back and forth, have first place for a few days in late August, but fall down to .500 by the end of the season.
Of course, I hope and hope and hope we win the World Series, but I don't think it's our time. I will change my mind if we go 6-0 in April to start off the 2007 season.
Goodnight.
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