Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Friday, January 20, 2012
Then when people begin to figure him out, he'll probably have to adjust his delivery and will end up just being a solid mid-rotation starter. The first couple of years, he'll be worth his contract, but after that he'll become Randy "Woof" Wolf with too long of a contract.
Not that I don't like Randy Wolf... he's certainly been a better investment than Barry Zito. But if I were running a team, I wouldn't have placed that much money, or that many years, on someone who has never pitched in the MLB.
I mean, it's hard enough to calculate "MLE" but with entirely different leagues and a much smaller sample size of players (Japanese pitchers in MLB) you really can't decide that there is a set trend for them to follow.
Of course, this isn't just about giving an unknown commodity a 6-year contract. Pitchers in general shouldn't be getting really long contracts because of the risks of injury and BABIP fluke seasons that can fool those who aren't careful.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
I still want to update about the Giants, but this blog name stands out as an anachronism in this new time for Giants fans.
I'm known (not very well) as Conor Gillaspie's biggest fan-boy. I started his Facebook fan page and put a bit of money to advertise it to targeted groups, even. That being said, it's hard for me to separate my desire for Conor to succeed with the facts, so I am probably not the best person when it comes to analysis of his value in the major leagues.
I am sure that he'd out-hit Aubrey Huff. His MLE (Major League Equivalency) has improved each year in the minors. It went from .213/.268/.278 in 2009 (San Jose) to .234/.273/.332 in 2010 (Richmond) to .252/.328/.372 in 2011 (Fresno.)
The one concern that stands out to me for Gillaspie is how much he got caught stealing. He does seem to be a smart baserunner, with 8 triples in 2010 and 6 in 2011, but a 50% CS rate is far too high. He needs to either not attempt to steal as often or try to learn to read pitchers better.
I think Gillaspie is ready to be a positive contributor to the 2011 Giants. In a full season of starting, I'd see him with about 2.0 WAR (mostly offense and a token 0.1+ WAR for average defense) and a dark horse ROTY candidate. However, the Giants will probably use him as a backup for Sandoval and perhaps Huff/Belt/Melky, and he won't get more than 150 at-bats barring a serious injury.
Part of me wants him to spend 2012 in the minors for a better shot at getting ROTY consideration in a full-time role for 2013, but I think both Gillaspie and the Giants would benefit more from having him on the roster this season.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Before I do any deeper analysis, my prediction is that Conor Gillapise will have stats similar to Jeff Cirilo’s, but with a higher OPS+ because Cirilo’s stats were “Coors”flated. For example, Bill Mueller’s career OPS is .797, and his career OPS+ is 109, meaning he is 9% better in terms of OPS than the average player. In terms of run production, Mueller was more than 9% better than the average player, because while his slugging of .425 was well within the margin of error of the slugging of an average player (.429.) his OBP of .373 is significantly superior to the average player.
Since OBP is more valuable for a team than SLG in general, I believe that the OPS+ should be weighting at the level that each stat, OBP and SLG, effects the game. Otherwise, OPS+ becomes misleading, as you could have a .300 OBP, .500 SLG guy and a .400/.400 guy both with an OPS+ of 110. Now, on to Jeff Cirlio. Cirilo is regarded as better player than Mueller and I believe this is only for one reason; he stayed healthy. Had Mueller stayed healthy after 2005, I imagine his numbers would practically mirror Cirillo’s, and right now he’d be a 39 year old pinch hitter and spot starter hitting .280 with no power. But sadly, even though he wants to play, there’s no magic operation to put cartilage in his knee. That is why I have chosen to live vicariously through Conor Gillaspie, or what I want him to be, at least.
On the surface, Cirilo and Mueller have nearly identical numbers. Cirilo’s batting average and slugging percentage his 5 points higher, and Mueller has six more points of OBP, giving him a one point advantage in OPS. Essentially, based just on those stats, these two players are the same. However, it is not quite that simple. Cirilo spent two years with the Rockies, putting up numbers better than most of his numbers in Milwaukee, but with a lower OPS+. Thus, the two years of Coorsflation make Cirilo and Mueller appear equal, when Mueller had the slightly better career of the two offensively. Defensively, Cirilo is better however, as overall in his career he gives teams 9.7 runs a year (projected for partial seasons) on defense. Mueller is average defensively, but this total is not quite accurate. He makes teams lose -0.1 runs on average per year, but if you count only from 1996-2000, before his first knee injury, teams averaged a gain of 2.24 runs a year. Thus, Mueller went from a slightly above average to slightly below average fielder in his career.
Now the question: Is Conor Gillaspie like these two players? Or is the next Wade Boggs? Or to be slightly pessimistic, is he Todd Walker? Or to be a typical Giants fan doomsayer, is he our Sean Burroguhs, a third baseman with absolutely no power? To start, we will take the age 21 season of each of these players and compare them We will also compare each of their stops (up to A+) so far, taking account for the ages of each player. I still suspect Cirilo or Mueller will be the best match, but I am open to any of the options. I will also compare college stats of all the players who went to college.
So far from my analysis, I observe that Jeff Cirilo played at class A at age 22 and hit .304 with 9 home runs. Conor Gillaspie, at age 21, hit .286 with 4 home runs. Cirilo walked more and showed a little more power, but Gillaspie is a year younger in a higher league. So far, it looks like the two players could be considered similar. Bill Mueller comparisons are yet to be made because Mueller did not play in the minors until age 22.
Overall, I believe my Gillaspie/Cirlio comparisons should be somewhat accurate.
Next week, I will have a more in-depth article.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
*anvil falls on my head*
Oh wait, this is not a comic or comedy.
My life is, but more on that later.
The Renteria signing smells bad. I call .260, 10 HR. I don't expect anything like .300. He'll hit like mediocrity. Short blog, but expect mediocrity and get excited if he hits .300.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
The Giants have gone from a consistent winner to a train wreck, and our moves this past offseason did nothing to help us. The Giants of 2005 and 2006 struggled due more to poor hitting than poor pitching. The 2005 Giants were a punchless lineup that had Pedro Feliz lead the team with 20 home runs. The 2006 Giants had Barry Bonds, but not quite the same Barry we remembered.
The 2007 Giants added Barry Zito. An above-average pitcher being paid an ace's wage. And we didn't even need him. Without Zito, we'd still have a solid pitching staff. At the start of the season we would have had Cain, Morris, Lowry, Lincecum, Ortiz/Sanchez/Corriea. Not bad at all. If we had spent Zito's salary on a hitter, we'd probably have hit... that magic .500 number.
This is what the Giants need to do to get back on track for the upcoming years.
Keep our pitching staff pretty much in-tact. Cain and Lincecum are the start of something scary, something 1997 Braves scary. Those two, plus some other decent arms will be enough for our pitching. Our pitching is pretty much good enough for the next few years.
Replace Klesko, Feliz, Aurillia, and yes, even Vizquel. And of course, replace Bonds. Barry won't be playing by the time the Giants are competitive again. Durham might not either.
The following positions need to be fixed immeidately:
The following positions are a couple years away from needing a quick replacement:
The following positions do not suck that much:
We need to rebuild completely for our 2015 world series run. 2015. Yep.